Korsakova S. Prognostic assessment of thermal resources for adaptation of crop production and forestry to climate change . Electronic science-productive magazine "AgroEcoInfo", 2018, N 3

2018, N 3 (33)

ECOLOGY

*Korsakova S.*
Prognostic assessment of thermal resources for adaptation of crop production and forestry to climate change
The results of the research was investigating of the changes characteristics temperature regime on the territory of the Southern coast of Crimea during the period from 1961 to 2099 and assessment of their possible impacts on crop production and forestry of region are presented. The article considers the parameters of the thermal regime of the Southern coast of the Crimea for the periods 1961-1990, 1998-2017 in comparison with their expected changes calculated with regard to two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for three periods: 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2099. After significant growth rates in 1998-2017, according to the most realistic scenario RCP4.5 the rate of heat accumulation will be reduced and activated only in the last 20 years of the XXI century. By the end of the XXI century in comparison with the basic climatic period 1961-1990 it is necessary to expect an increase in the average accumulated temperatures above 10 °C by 800-950 °C, which corresponds to the shift of the boundary of the sum of temperatures by 5-6° latitude. For the most dramatic climate scenario RCP8.5 in the middle and in the second half of the 21st century, it is assumed the further temperature rise with a sharp increase in 2081-2099. In the implementation of any climate change scenarios in the territory of the Southern coast of Crimea earlier dates of the transition of air temperature through different limits in the spring and later their onset in the autumn and the total increase in the accumulation of temperatures are expected. It is expected to shift to earlier periods of the beginning of vegetation and maturation of plants as well as the seasonal development of foliage browsing insects. As the temperature rises will be increase the risk occurrence of forest fires. The increase in duration of the growing season can improve crop productivity. The rise in heat accumulation will expand the area of cultivation of the most thermophilic crops but the need for irrigation water will grow in proportion to the temperature increase. Keywords: THERMAL RESOURCES, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, CROP PRODUCTION, FORESTRY, ADAPTATION